Enabling Port and Industrial Zones to Support Offshore Wind Energy Development along the Coast of the Yucatán Peninsula and the Gulf of Tehuantepec

 

 

1.   Background

 

Mexico has enormous potential for renewable energy generation within its 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ) measured from its coastlines. Offshore wind energy (OSW) stands out in particular; its gross potential[1] has been estimated at 869 GW.[2]

 

The areas where much of this potential is concentrated are: (i) the coast of Yucatán, Campeche and part of Tabasco; and (ii) the Gulf of Tehuantepec, off the coasts of Oaxaca and Chiapas.

 

 

Other assessments of the country's offshore wind potential have been carried out by Mexican researchers. The following table describes two of them, together with the World Bank estimate and the exercise carried out for this paper.[3]

 

Estimates of Mexico's Offshore Wind Energy Potential
Source	Year	Methodology	Geographic Scope	Potential GW
World Bank / ESMAP – Going Global programme and technical potential map for Mexico	2019 (Report), 2020 Map of Mexico	Global Wind Atlas. No social or environmental exclusions.	Entire country: 200-kilometre coastal maritime strip	Technical potential: 402 GW with fixed-bottom technology; 467 GW with floating technology
Juárez-Casildo, Cervantes and González-Huerta (IPN), Energy for Sustainable Development 83:101565	2024	ERA5 reanalysis (0.25°) at 100 m. Vestas V164-9.5 MW turbine. Foundation by depth: monopile 0–30 m, jacket 30–60 m, floating > 60 m. Geographic constraints only. Includes LCOE (63–241 USD/MWh).	EEZ of 3,177,210 km²; 300,342 km² usable. "Eastern" Zone (Oaxaca coast): 10,875 km². "Peninsular" Zone (north and west of the Yucatán Peninsula): 183,613 km².	Eastern Zone: 68.5 GW at 6.3 MW/km²; capacity factor 50%. Peninsular Zone: 973.1 GW at 5.3 MW/km²; capacity factor 48%.
Hernández Gálvez et al., Renewable Energy 256:124127	2026	Multi-criteria spatial planning. Depth ≤ 60 m (fixed-bottom only), ≥ 20 km from shore, wind ≥ 6 m/s at 100 m. Excludes protected natural areas, fishing refuges, reefs and hydrocarbon zones. IEA 15 MW turbine, 10D × 5D spacing → 5.21 MW/km².	Gulf of Tehuantepec: 32,325 km² in total, 789 km² feasible for fixed-bottom foundations. Gulf of Mexico by state marine area (AMB): Yucatán 58,776 km², Campeche 28,901 km², Tabasco 601 km² feasible.	Gulf of Tehuantepec: 4.11 GW. 89% of the gulf exceeds 60 m in depth, so all floating potential is excluded.  Yucatán 306.2 GW; Campeche 150.6 GW; Tabasco 3.1 GW.
Own initial estimate, taking constraints into account	2026	ETOPO 2022 bathymetry and GIS. Hernández Gálvez (2026) criteria expanded with fishing, navigation and hydrocarbon layers. Precautionary scenario, at 5.21 MW/km².	Tehuantepec: 31,957 km² (closed by the Puerto Ángel–Suchiate line), mainly floating at 60–300 m. Peninsular Coast, from the port of Frontera to the port of Progreso: 52,768 km² (100 km strip), mainly fixed-bottom at 0–70 m.	Gulf of Tehuantepec: Precautionary, 6,040 km2 (18.9% of the total area), main floating range only: 31.5 GW. Peninsular Coast: Precautionary: 5,858 km2 (11.10% of the total area), 30.5 GW.
SOURCE: Author's own elaboration.

 

Offshore wind has a higher capacity factor than onshore wind (40–60% vs 25–35%) owing to the absence of obstacles, and it can be deployed at scales that are unattainable on land (1 GW+ wind farms, turbines of 15 MW and above). It therefore generates a very large investment flow that relies on a specialised supply chain which, ideally, should be located close to the offshore wind farms to be developed, given the size of the components and the logistics cost of moving them.

 

A growing number of developed and emerging countries are putting in place ambitious multi-year programmes that make offshore wind a key element of their energy transition and decarbonisation policies. Besides China, the world leader, European countries such as the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark stand out, and the United States, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have joined more recently. Programmes are being prepared in Australia, the Philippines and Brazil, among others. In Latin America, Colombia held its first international auction in 2025. The following table lists 22 countries with their known offshore wind development targets, in descending order of share.

 

Offshore Wind Energy Development Worldwide
Country	Target (GW)	Year	In Operation (GW)	Share (%)
China	100	2030	50	54.10%
United Kingdom	50	2030	16.5	17.80%
Germany	30	2032	10.8	11.70%
	70	2045
Taiwan	13	2030	4.7	5.10%
Japan	10	2030	0.5	0.50%
	45	2040
South Korea	45	2040	0.4	0.40%
Netherlands	21	2033	5.0	5.40%
	40	2040
Denmark	10	2030	2.7	2.90%
	35	2050
France	15	2035	1.95	2.10%
	45	2050
Ireland	5	2030	0.03	0.03%
	37	2050
Norway	30	2040	0.09	0.10%
Poland	6	2030	1.00	1.10%
	18	2040
India	30	2030	0	0
Vietnam	17	2035	0	0
Australia	9	2040	0	0
TOTAL	584	2030-2050	93.67	101%
SOURCE: Global Offshore Wind Report 2026.

 

In 2025 the United Kingdom already met 19% of its electricity consumption with offshore wind, and it expects to reach 50% by 2030.

 

To date, firm targets total more than 700 GW of offshore wind, and the international ambition is to exceed 2,000 GW by 2050. OSW grew at an average annual rate of 22% between 2015 and 2024. Mexico, through the Ministry of Energy (SENER), is already preparing its long-term policy and programme with the support of the UK and Danish cooperation agencies.

 

Over the last 5 years (2021–2026), 44 projects totalling a similar number of GW have been awarded in 8 countries, at a weighted average price of USD 98.50 per MWh. The latest UK auction (AR7) awarded both onshore and offshore wind projects. The offshore price was only 25% higher than the onshore wind price, a difference that is also offset by the former's higher capacity factor.

 

Awarded auctions for offshore wind projects,  2021-2026
Country	No. of projects	Awarded capacity (GW)	Floating capacity (GW)	Weighted average price (USD/MWh)
United Kingdom	15	19.22	0.62	$100.8
France	5	3.25	0.75	$71.8
Ireland	5	3.97	0.00	$98.5
Poland	3	3.44	0.00	$135.4
Denmark	3	2.80	0.00	$53.0
Norway	1	1.50	0.00	$109.5
Japan	8	4.21	0.00	$72.9
USA	4	5.48	0.00	$141.8
Total	44	43.87	1.37	$98.5
SOURCE: Author's own elaboration, with the help of the Claude AI model in reviewing the auctions.

 

One of the critical aspects of Mexico's roadmap for offshore wind development is adapting its port and industrial infrastructure, well in advance, in order to take full advantage of the major opportunities that will arise in the coming years. This note is a first approach to the adaptations required.

 

It also provides a preliminary, precautionary estimate of the power generation potential of the two areas of greatest interest, in order to size the likely floor, subject to refinement once detailed technical studies are carried out.

 

Finally, it puts forward a number of recommendations so that our country can begin to harness this very important energy source within a short timeframe.

 

2.   Typical Roadmap for Offshore Wind Energy Development

For an emerging country such as Mexico, the typical OSW roadmap has four components, which largely unfold simultaneously:

 

FIRST COMPONENT

This concerns establishing the strategic vision and enabling the market: a long-term horizon, multi-year targets, and public-private working groups. It entails building the regulatory and institutional framework on four basic pillars[4]:

 

i)            a competitive process for obtaining seabed access rights;

ii)           a clear and expeditious permitting process (one-stop shop; environmental, social and technical authorisations);

iii)          project bankability (contracts for difference, long-term power purchase agreements);

iv)          timely and cost-effective connection of offshore wind farms to the onshore transmission grid (taking into account the need for battery systems and other options such as the production of green hydrogen and its derivatives).

 

It also includes early and ongoing engagement withstakeholders: local communities, users of marine space, and community benefit mechanisms.

 

SECOND COMPONENT

This consists of marine spatial planning and zone allocation, beginning with an early planning phase (identifying the zones with the greatest energy potential and the fewest constraints):

 

i)            Site identification and selection methodology: first, exclude areas with environmental, social, economic and concurrent-use constraints (such as shipping routes)

ii)           Ranking the potential of the remaining unconstrained areas (wind speed and density, water depth, distance from shore, geophysical seabed conditions).

 

It also includes the assessment and mitigation of environmental and social impacts (following international standards), and the definition of the allocation models for marine concessions (a competitive model among international consortia, with government revenue from the auctions through upfront fees and annual fees (per km2, per MW of project capacity).

 

THIRD COMPONENT

This concerns the development of enabling infrastructure in two key areas:

 

i)            Planning transmission and grid connection, using either high-voltage alternating current or high-voltage direct current systems (HVAC and HVDC, respectively)

ii)           Port development strategy: manufacturing ports, integration and assembly ports, and operations and maintenance ports.

 

FOURTH COMPONENT

This covers fostering the supply chain and human capital, through:

 

i)            An active industrial policy

ii)           A comprehensive assessment of the local, regional and national industrial base (supply chain readiness)

iii)          Human resource planning and capacity building

iv)          Specialised maritime transport requirements.

 

3.   Types of Support Ports for the Development, Construction, Installation, Maintenance and Operation of Offshore Wind Farms

 

Three types of marine terminals serve the offshore wind industry. The first is the manufacturing terminal. Its requirements vary depending on the component involved. The largest components must, for logistical reasons, be manufactured at a marine terminal or very close to one. One of the best examples is the port of Cuxhaven, in Germany, which is at the same time a manufacturing port, an integration and assembly port, and an operations and maintenance port.

 

The second type is the integration and assembly terminal (staging, marshalling), which receives the components, sorts and stores them, assembles and integrates them, and loads them onto the specialised vessels that carry them out for installation at the offshore wind farm. A good example is the Danish port of Esbjerg, which has been the support base for the installation of many offshore wind farms in the North Sea.

 

The third type is the operations and maintenance terminal, from which personnel are transported, spare parts and maintenance supplies are stored, and the operation of the offshore wind farm is organised and continuously monitored. It has no special size or depth requirements, so it can coexist in various ports and marine terminals.

 

The following table presents some of the technical requirements that marine terminals and industrial sites must meet in order to host the manufacture of the various components of offshore wind farms, such as blades, nacelles, towers, foundations, inter-array cables and export cables, among others. For example, the required area ranges from 10 to 40 hectares per plant, depending on the component. Quay length ranges from 90 to 375 metres, and the draught alongside the quay ranges from 6 to 82[5] metres. Quay and yard load-bearing capacity ranges from 2.5 to 30 tonnes per m2.

 

Technical Specifications for Marine Terminals for Manufacturing Offshore Wind Farm Components
Ref	Requirements	Components
		Blades	Nacelles	Towers	Floating Foundation			Array Cable Carousel	Export Cables	Anchors	Mooring Lines	Secondary Steel
					Semi-submersible Platform	Spar Buoy Platform	TLP Platform
1	Total area (hectares)	40	10	20 a 40	30 a 33	30 a 33	30 a 33	40	40	4 a 12	4 a 12	1 a 20
2	Yard load-bearing capacity (t/m2)	20 a 30	20 a 30	10 a 15	20 a 30	20 a 30	20 a 30	5	5 a 10	2.5	2.5	10 a 15
3	Storage (thousand m2)	60 a 70						28	28	20 a 60	20 a 60	4 a 32
4	Wet storage (hectares)	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	500	500	500	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
5	Air draft / clear height (metres)	60	60	60	200	200	200	60	60			30 a 60
6	Navigation: basin depth (metres)	12		8 a 12.5	10 a 12.5	90	12.5	10	10	10	10	7 a 14
7	Navigation: basin width (metres)	60 a 120	125	46 a 60	100 a 135	60 a 90	90 a 135	28	28	60 a 120	60 a 120	25 a 60
8	Quay: length (metres)	300	250	250	375	375	375	150	150	90	90	90 a 215
9	Quay: width (metres)	40
10	Quay: load-bearing capacity (t/m2)	20 a 30	20 a 30	30	30	30	30	5	5	2.5	2.5	10 a 15
11	Quay: draught (metres)	10	10 a 27.5	11.6	11.6	6 a 82	8.5 a 11.6	9	9	6 a 9	6 a 9	9 a 12
SOURCE: Author's own elaboration based on Floating Offshore Wind Manual: Port Requirements, Opportunities, and Impacts; BW Research, 2024.                  n.a. = not applicable

The following table shows the technical specifications for integration and assembly marine terminals. They require an area of between 20 and 40 hectares, with 6 hectares of covered storage. The quay would be 600 to 900 metres long so that several vessels can operate at the same time, and the draught required alongside the quay would range from 10 to 12 metres. Quay and yard load-bearing capacity would be between 10 and 30 tonnes per m2. A distinctive feature of terminals of this type for floating offshore wind farms is the wet storage area required, which can reach 500 hectares so as to hold, at the same time, 6 turbines of 15 MW already mounted on their floating foundations.

 

Technical Specifications for Marine Terminals for the Assembly and Integration of Offshore Wind Farm Components*
Ref	Requirements	Unit of Measure
1	Total area (hectares)	20 a 40
2	Yard load-bearing capacity (t/m2)	10 a 20
3	Storage (thousand m2)	60
4	Wet storage (hectares)	500
5	Air draft / clear height (metres)	335
6	Navigation: basin depth (metres)	14 a 30
7	Navigation: basin width (metres)	135
8	Quay: length (metres)	600 a 900
9	Quay: width (metres)	40
10	Quay: load-bearing capacity (t/m2)	30
11	Quay: draught (metres)	10 a 12
*Covers all components.    SOURCE: Author's own elaboration based on Floating Offshore Wind Manual: Port Requirements, Opportunities, and Impacts; BW Research, 2024.

 

The following table presents the technical requirements for operations and maintenance marine terminals, which are less demanding. The total area may range from 3 to 5 hectares. Quay length is estimated at 400 metres to allow several vessels to operate at the same time. The draught required alongside the quay ranges from 4 to 8 metres. It should be noted that these requirements are sized for a 1 GW wind farm. Terminals of this type usually serve several wind farms at the same time, with a combined capacity of more than 1 GW.

 

Technical Specifications for Marine Terminals for the Operation and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Farms*
Ref	Requirements	Unit of Measure	Remarks
1	Total area (hectares)	3 a 5	per GW, with office
2	Yard load-bearing capacity (t/m2)	2.5 a 3
3	Covered and open storage (thousand m2)	10,000	one hectare per GW
4	Wet storage (hectares)	n.a.
5	Air draft / clear height (metres)	30 a 45
6	Navigation: basin depth (metres)	5 a 9
7	Navigation: basin width (metres)	30
8	Quay: length (metres)	400	simultaneous operations
9	Quay: width (metres)	40 a 60
10	Quay: load-bearing capacity (t/m2)	0.5 a 2.5
11	Quay: draught (metres)	4 a 8
* Movement of personnel, supplies and spare parts.    SOURCE: Author's own elaboration based on Floating Offshore Wind Manual: Port Requirements, Opportunities, and Impacts; BW Research, 2024.                  n.a. = not applicable

 

 

4.   Supply Chain for Offshore Wind Farm Development

 

Offshore wind energy (OSW) development opens up the opportunity to undertake, in parallel, a large-scale green industrialisation process around the same ports that serve as support bases for the offshore wind farms. This is not merely a preference but a necessary condition for achieving maximum supply chain efficiency and the broadest impact in terms of regional and community development.

 

A 1 GW offshore wind farm entails investment of almost USD 3 billion, a significant share of which could be attracted to zones expressly designed for that purpose, as is already happening in different regions of the world.

 

Consortia of global companies have consolidated over the last decade, taking part in the international auctions held every year in a growing number of countries. These consortia partner with local companies to varying degrees and under different arrangements, in order to generate community benefits through quality jobs, local technical capacity building, and technological research and development.

 

On the basis of long-term contracts for the purchase of the energy produced by the state-owned electricity company (CFE in our case), projects become "bankable" and eligible for concessional financial support from institutions such as the World Bank and the International Finance Corporation, among others.

 

The following image shows some of the typical components of an offshore wind project, to highlight their dimensions and the advantages of manufacturing them at a port close to the area where the offshore wind farms will be installed.

 

Of the almost USD 3 billion of investment per GW with fixed-bottom foundation technology[6], it is estimated – based on international experience over the last 10 years – that up to 65% can be captured as local/regional/national content in the short and medium term.[7] This percentage could increase if the supply chain development process is supported by an industrial policy that includes technological research and development, local technical capacity building, and attractive conditions for foreign investment in industrial plants and their possible partnership with Mexican companies.

 

The following diagram and table show how the different components of the offshore wind supply chain fit together, and their estimated cost within a 1 GW project.

 

 

Typical Breakdown of Investment in a 1 GW Offshore Wind Farm and Estimated Local Spillover with a Supply Chain Development Strategy
Ref	Item	Amount (USD million)	%		% Local Content	Local investment amount (USD million)
1	Offshore wind farm	$2,491	85%		62%	$1,548
1.1.	Development expenditure	$264	9%		50%	$132
1.2.	Wind turbines	$1,406	48%		44%	$619
1.2.1	Nacelle *	$844	29%		20%	$169
1.2.2	Rotor **	$387	13%		80%	$309
1.2.3	Tower	$176	6%		80%	$141
1.3.	Foundations	$703	24%		100%	$703
1.4.	Inter-array cables	$117	4%		80%	$94
2	Export electrical system	$440	15%		80%	$352
2.1.	Offshore substation	$147	5%		80%	$117
2.2.	Offshore export cable	$176	6%		80%	$141
2.3.	Onshore export cable	$29	1%		80%	$23
2.4.	Onshore substation	$88	3%		80%	$70
3	TOTAL AMOUNT	$2,930	100%		65%	$1,899
* Includes the generator, gearbox, converter and electrical components
** Includes the blades and the hub
SOURCE: Author's own elaboration based on The role of concessional climate finance in accelerating the deployment of offshore wind in emerging markets; World Bank-ESMAP, IFC, PROBLUE; September 2023.

 

If we assume that a multi-year (10-year) programme can be structured to develop 6 GW per year (3 GW per zone), a first approximation of the supply chain requirements is shown in the following table. Assuming a 15 MW design turbine (the largest size installed commercially to date), 400 wind turbines would be needed each year.[8]

 

Requirements for Developing 6 GW per Year
Annual volume	Frontera–Progreso (fixed-bottom)	Gulf of Tehuantepec (floating)	Total
Wind turbines (15 MW)	200	200	400
Blades (~117 m)	600	600	1,200
Nacelles / towers	200 / 200	200 / 200	400 / 400
Foundations	~160 monopiles with transition pieces, ~40 jackets	200 floating platforms	—
Mooring lines / anchors	—	~600 / ~600 (~500 km of line)	—
Inter-array cable	~360 km	~360 km (dynamic)	~720 km
HVDC export systems (2 GW each)	~1.5 (~240 km of cable)	~1.5 (~210 km of cable)	~3 converter platforms
Heavy steel plate	~0.80 Mt	~0.85 Mt	~1.65 Mt
SOURCE: Author's own elaboration, with the help of the Claude AI model.

 

 

Industrial Plants Needed to Manufacture 6 GW of Offshore Wind Capacity per Year
Component	Annual need	Output per plant	Plants	Land (ha)	Permitting and construction (years)	Direct jobs
Blades	1,200	225	6 (3 per zone)	~195	3–5	~3,000
Nacelles	400	100	4	~65	3–5	~920
Towers	400	100	4	~73	3–5	~1,160
Monopiles	160	100	2	65–81	2	~1,100
Transition pieces	160	100	2	~36	2–3	~600
Jackets	40	50	1	32–40	—	~550
Floating platforms	200	~50	4	120–160	~1	~960
Inter-array cable (incl. dynamic)	~720 km	550 km	2	~36	5–6	~460
HVDC export cable	~450 km	250+ km	1–2	18–36	5–6	230–460
Mooring chain (and rope)	~500 km	2,000 km	1–2	~20	4–5	110–220
Steel plate	~1.65 Mt	1 Mt	2	~243	5	~920
Casting and forging	varies	—	2	~8	2–4	~480
Total			~31–33	~910–990		~10,500–10,800
SOURCE: Author's own elaboration based on NREL (2023) estimates for the US supply chain.

 

5.   Existing and Planned Port and Industrial Infrastructure on the Coast of Yucatán, Campeche and Tabasco

 

The area initially estimated to have offshore wind potential in the Gulf of Mexico is the 100-kilometre-wide coastal strip around the Yucatán Peninsula, from the port of Frontera, in Tabasco, to the port of Progreso, in Yucatán. It covers an area of 52,768 km2. Within it, after precautionary deduction of roughly estimated areas corresponding to other uses that restrict or exclude the siting of offshore wind farms, a net precautionary area with potential of 5,859 km2 is defined, equivalent to 11.10% of the total area initially considered. See the following table.

 

Frontera–Progreso Peninsular Strip: Net Precautionary Area (km2)
Ref	Item	Area (km2)	%
1	Total area of the Peninsular Strip	52,768	100.0%
2	Pink shrimp fishing grounds (25 fathoms or less)	-12,125	-23.0%
3	Coastal maritime strip <20 kilometres	-10,486	-19.9%
4	Hydrocarbon Area	-7,104	-13.5%
5	Shipping traffic	-6,505	-12.3%
6	Red octopus fishing grounds (<20 metres deep)	-6,484	-12.3%
6	Seagrass beds (depth <10 metres)	-2,394	-4.5%
7	Areas deeper than 200 metres	-1,366	-2.6%
8	Los Petenes Biosphere Reserve	-445	-0.8%
9	Net precautionary area with potential	5,859	11.10%
SOURCE: Author's own elaboration based on an estimate prepared with the Claude-Projects AI model.

 

This exercise provides a first approximation of the wind power generation potential. The installable capacity in the net precautionary area is 30.5 GW.^[9] With a net capacity factor of 36.5%, this installable capacity would produce a total of 97.76 TWh of electricity, equivalent to more than 5 times the electricity consumption of the Peninsular region in 2026.

 

The two maps below illustrate how the areas for the different possible uses of the marine space in the Frontera–Progreso peninsular coastal strip were conceptually estimated. First, bands were drawn at every 10 metres of depth down to 70 metres. The shallow depth of the continental shelf is striking: 91.3% of the zone is less than 70 metres deep, and practically the first 50 kilometres from the coast are less than 30 metres deep. Except for the initial 20-kilometre coastal strip, considered an exclusion zone to avoid any visual impact, the rest of the zone is suitable for installing fixed-bottom wind turbines, and at a short distance from shore. Both factors help to reduce the overall cost of the projects. The small portion of the total area with depths greater than 70 metres is concentrated in the segment known as Frontera–Carmen.

 

 

In the second map, the areas that restrict or exclude the establishment of offshore wind farms were conceptually mapped. In addition to the 20-kilometre coastal strip, the following were identified: precautionary fishing zones, representing 35.3% of the total area; the oil production zone in the Campeche Sound; and shipping routes, which were assigned a precautionary band of 4.5 nautical miles on each side of the centreline of each route. The support ports are marked: Progreso, Seybaplaya, Isla del Carmen and Frontera. All of them will require major improvements to equip them as integration and assembly ports (Progreso and Frontera), manufacturing ports (Progreso, Frontera and Seybaplaya)[10], and operations and maintenance ports (all 4 ports).

 

 

It is important to note that these measurements serve for the initial, broad-brush planning of the zone and for preliminary validation that there is attractive power generation potential. Improving the accuracy of the data requires marine spatial planning, following the methodology already tested in various countries, using geographic information systems (GIS) and holding consultation and discussion forums with local communities and relevant stakeholders.^[11]

 

In a long-term projection, expected electricity consumption in this region (the fastest-growing in the country) includes the gradual replacement of natural gas, currently the predominant fuel; the electrification of offshore oil platforms in the Campeche Sound; and growing future demand from industrialisation and the establishment of data centres in the region. With the addition of offshore wind, the peninsula would become an electricity exporter rather than an importer, supplying other regions of the country, and could even export electricity to Central America (via a high-voltage grid). The regional electrification strategy would need to include batteries (30% of the generation capacity developed) for at least 4 hours (to cover hourly wind variations), as well as green hydrogen production to blend with natural gas and eventually replace it (and to cover seasonal wind variations). There may also be enough to produce green fuels (ammonia and/or methanol) for distribution to the busiest Mexican ports in the Gulf of Mexico.

 

The following charts show recent historical and projected electricity consumption to 2039 for the Peninsular Region (according to the Electricity Sector Plan, PLADESE), as well as the trajectory that offshore wind generation would follow under a multi-year (10-year) programme beginning in 2032.

 

 

If a development target of 3 GW per year is adopted, a multi-year programme could be structured for the next 10 years, providing an adequate planning horizon for attracting investment into the supply chain. Accordingly, the plan to be put together by the federal government together with the state governments of Yucatán, Campeche and Tabasco should consider the port–industrial zone pairing, as illustrated in the maps and sketches below.

 

On the coast of Yucatán, Campeche and Tabasco, there are four ports that can take on complementary roles to cover the wide maritime strip with potential:

 

In Progreso and its Wellbeing Economic Development Poles (PODECOBIs), it is possible to establish industrial plants manufacturing components that would then be moved to the port expansion area, to an integration and assembly terminal of at least 20 hectares[12], which could also be used as an operations and maintenance terminal.

 

Seybaplaya and its PODECOBI could host industrial plants manufacturing components that would then be shipped through the port's offshore terminal to Progreso or Nuevo Frontera for final integration. It could also support operations and maintenance tasks.

 

Isla del Carmen, with its new multipurpose terminal, could support operations and maintenance activities, particularly for the wind farms linked to the electrification of offshore oil platforms.

 

Nuevo Frontera, relaunched as part of the Tabasco Port Administration (API), can become a key port-industrial base supporting manufacturing, integration and assembly, and operations and maintenance, owing to its potential to develop quays along its lateral channel and its proximity to the 300-hectare site that the state government acquired years ago.

 

It is important to note that the polygons shown on the maps are freehand outlines drawn with the help of Google Earth, not precise AutoCAD-type measurements.

 

6.   Existing and Planned Port and Industrial Infrastructure on the Coast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec

 

On the Pacific coast, Mexico's main zone with OSW development potential is the marine area within the Gulf of Tehuantepec, which for practical purposes has been delimited by a straight line between Puerto Ángel and the mouth of the Suchiate River. The marine area between the coastline and this straight line covers 31,900 square kilometres.

 

The area estimated to have potential within the Gulf of Tehuantepec is 6,040 square kilometres, equivalent to 18.9% of the total area considered. This figure is obtained after precautionary deduction of rough estimates of areas corresponding to other uses that restrict or exclude their use for siting offshore wind farms, as shown in the following table.

 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Net Precautionary Area (km2)
Ref	Item	Area (km2)	%
1	Total area of the Gulf of Tehuantepec	31,957	100.0%
2	Shipping traffic and fishing zones	-11,293	-35.3%
3	Coastal maritime strip <20 kilometres	-9,817	-30.7%
4	Areas deeper than 300 metres	-4,807	-15.0%
5	Net precautionary area with potential	6,040	18.9%
SOURCE: Author's own elaboration based on an estimate prepared with the Claude-Projects AI model.

 

This exercise provides a first approximation of the wind power generation potential. The installable capacity in the net precautionary area is 31.5 GW.[13] With a net capacity factor of 40.8%, this installable capacity would produce a total of 112.47 TWh of electricity, equivalent to 1.8 times the electricity consumption forecast for the Eastern region in 2026.[14]

 

The two maps below illustrate how the areas for the different possible uses of the marine space in the Gulf of Tehuantepec were conceptually estimated. First, bands were drawn to identify the depth of the zone. The first band marks depths of up to 60 metres, suitable for fixed-bottom foundation technologies. Much of the preliminarily defined strip extending 20 kilometres from the coastline lies within it; in that strip, offshore wind farms would not be sited, so as to avoid any visual impact.[15] The subsequent bands mark the gradual increase in depth up to 300 metres, the limit of what is currently considered economically viable. Only a minor portion of the marine area of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is deeper than 300 metres. Almost the entire area of the Gulf lies within 100 kilometres of the coast.

 

Outside the Gulf, depths exceed one thousand metres, and this area is not included in the analysis.

 

In the second map, the areas that restrict or exclude the establishment of offshore wind farms were conceptually mapped. In addition to the 20-kilometre coastal strip, shipping routes were identified and assigned a precautionary band of 4.5 nautical miles on each side of the centreline of each route. The fishing area was also defined, and areas deeper than 300 metres were discarded.

 

Expected electricity consumption in this Eastern region includes major industrial and tourism areas in the states of Puebla, Veracruz, Tabasco and Guerrero, as well as the demand that may be generated by the development of the Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. The region has significant hydroelectric and nuclear generation, as well as onshore wind in the south of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Offshore wind generation in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is not expected to replace current sources, but rather to complement them and, above all, to meet demand growth. Besides the mandatory addition of batteries, there is likely to be enough room for green hydrogen production to help replace the grey hydrogen used by PEMEX, and to produce green fuels (green ammonia and/or methanol) to meet the demand of maritime traffic at Mexico's Pacific ports. The region could also export electricity to other regions of the country and even to Central America.

 

The following charts show recent historical and projected electricity consumption to 2039 for the Eastern Region (according to the Electricity Sector Plan, PLADESE), as well as the trajectory that offshore wind generation would follow under a multi-year (10-year) programme beginning in 2032.

 

 

If a development target of 3 GW per year is adopted, a multi-year programme could be structured for the next 10 years, providing an adequate planning horizon for attracting investment into the supply chain. Accordingly, the plan to be put together by the federal government together with the state governments of Oaxaca and Chiapas should consider the port–industrial zone pairing, as illustrated in the maps and sketches below.

 

The supporting port-industrial zone centres on reactivating the industrial port project at Salina Cruz and on the combination of Puerto Chiapas with its two PODECOBIs.

 

Since the late 1970s, an industrial port has been envisaged adjacent to the current port of Salina Cruz, in the area known as Bahía del Marqués. For various reasons, the project has never got off the drawing board, although it has remained an official goal and is included in the Salina Cruz Port Development Master Plan 2022–2027.

 

 

Its development is now fully justified for it to become the hub for offshore wind on Mexico's Pacific coast, capable of combining the functions of manufacturing port, integration and assembly port, and operations and maintenance port for the entire supply chain, including the substation receiving the offshore wind power, battery storage, and the production of green hydrogen and derivatives (methanol/ammonia). Methanol production could obtain the CO2 it requires from the PEMEX refinery in Salina Cruz. The green fuels would be distributed by coastal shipping to other Mexican Pacific ports (particularly Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas) to provide bunkering services to international shipping lines that are decarbonising their fleets. This set of activities would give the industrial port the critical mass it needs, but its role could be broadened to offer a truly competitive development option[16] to the container terminal currently being planned at the wrong site. The following diagram  and table show the conceptual layout of the industrial port, together with a first sizing of its quay, yard and depth requirements, which are even more demanding because the potential lies in floating technologies, at depths greater than 60–70 metres.

 

The following table summarises the characteristics of the three sections envisaged for the industrial port.

 

Conceptual Layout of the Salina Cruz Industrial Port
Section	Location	Main components	Area (ha)	Quays and draughts	Phases
1. Offshore wind cluster	Centre	Dedicated basin with 5–7 integration berths and wet storage; 3 platform yards; plants for blades, nacelles, towers, moorings and dynamic cable; operations and maintenance; project cargo; plate steel mill	460–580 (+120–200 for the steel mill)	5.4–7.3 km; integration at −16.5 m; 260 m channel and 130 m harbour entrance	F1–F3
2. Energy hub	West	Cable landfall and converter stations (4–7 links of 2 GW); batteries equal to 30% of wind capacity, with 4 h duration (7.2 GW and 29 GWh in 2039); modular hydrogen up to 2.4 GW (200 kt/year); ammonia (~560 kt/year) and methanol (~530 kt/year); tanks; desalination plant; safety zone	300–530 (including 115–200 for batteries)	Liquid bulk jetty with 1–2 berths at −15 m	F1–F3
3. Commercial cargo	East, adjacent to the current port	2,000 m container terminal with 200 ha (in the order of 3–4 million TEU per year); intermodal rail yard and customs; other terminals as demand requires (multipurpose, Ro-Ro, bulk, reefer); logistics activity zone	430–590	2,000 m at −18 m; ~300 m channel; ~800 m turning basin; other terminals at −14/−16 m	F1–F2 and as demand requires
Total onshore			~1,300–1,900
SOURCE: Author's own elaboration, with the help of the Claude AI model.    NOTE: The areas of sections 2 and 3 and the capacity of the container terminal are the author's own estimates. The terminal dimensions (2,000 m of quay and 200 ha of yards) are a planning assumption. Batteries are sized at 30% of installed wind capacity with 4 hours' duration, per the PLADESE criterion, with a density of about 250 MWh per hectare (plausible range of 150–400 MWh/ha).

  

At the eastern end of the Gulf of Tehuantepec lies Puerto Chiapas, which could serve as a component manufacturing port, from which components could then be shipped by coastal shipping to the Salina Cruz industrial port for final integration, drawing on the adjacent PODECOBIs, and also as an operations and maintenance port.

 

 

7.   Conclusions and Recommendations

 

·       Offshore wind energy (OSW) in Mexico has enormous potential to advance the country's transition towards a clean, independent and affordable energy mix that meets future electricity demand across a wide area of the country, drives green industrial development, and helps to significantly reduce natural gas imports.

 

·       There is a wealth of international experience spanning more than two decades in the development of this industry, from which lessons learned can be drawn. In fact, the Ministry of Energy is working on the regulatory and institutional framework needed to promote OSW in our country, with the support of the UK and Danish cooperation agencies.

 

·       In parallel, the country needs to accelerate its preparation in several key areas in order to unlock, as soon as possible, the robust and continuous flow of investment over at least the next 20 years that the development of this industry can represent. International experience has distilled the main workstreams that require coordinated action by the authorities (at all three levels of government), domestic and foreign investors, and other relevant local and regional stakeholders. One of these workstreams is the enabling of port and industrial zones in the marine areas where the wind farms are to be installed.

 

·       Two marine areas concentrate Mexico's OSW potential: the coast of the states of Campeche, Tabasco and Yucatán in the Gulf of Mexico, and the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the Pacific. They have different characteristics and call for specific strategies.

 

·       On the Gulf of Mexico coast, it is possible to develop a network of mutually complementary ports and associated industrial zones to support an OSW deployment based on fixed-bottom foundation technologies, thanks to the shallow depth of the continental shelf around the Yucatán Peninsula.

 

·       In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, efforts should be concentrated on a major port-industrial hub based on the renewed industrial port project that Salina Cruz has been contemplating for more than 40 years. Puerto Chiapas and its Wellbeing Economic Development Poles (PODECOBIs) could be of great help as a complement.

 

·       A first step of great strategic value would be for the federal authorities (SEMAR, SENER, SEMARNAT, the Ministry of Economy, among others) and the state governments involved to form an inter-agency and intergovernmental working group to begin organising and activating the various workstreams that need to be addressed.

 

·       In particular, it falls to SEMAR, as the maritime and port authority, to carry out marine spatial planning, drawing on the lessons of international experience in this field.

 

 

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[1] The estimate is by the World Bank and the International Finance Corporation, under their Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP). Marine areas subject to restrictions for environmental, social, economic and safety reasons, as well as shipping routes, must be deducted from this gross potential

[2] With a capacity factor of 40%, the wind energy that could be generated is equivalent to 8 times the national electricity consumption forecast for 2026.

[3] All measurements at this scale carried out to date are based on satellite meteorological data. They are high-level estimates that serve to determine where there is potential and where there is not. Project-level information must be obtained from field measurements using floating LiDAR.

[4] As identified by the WB-IFC in the various roadmaps they have prepared around the world, with the support of concessional financing.

[5] The 82 metres are required for foundations based on spar buoy platforms.

[6] The maximum depth for using fixed-bottom technology is between 60 and 70 metres. Beyond 70 metres, floating foundation technology is required, which is more expensive.

[7] The United Kingdom has an indicative target of achieving at least 60% local/national content across the supply chain.

[8] It should be noted that higher-capacity wind turbines (18 to 26 MW) are already in pilot testing, so the final choice of optimal size could change in the coming years. It would be realistic to assume that the first offshore wind turbine will be installed around 2032, once all the preparations (regulatory, technical studies, port and industrial infrastructure) have been completed.

[9] This calculation assumes an IEA 15 MW turbine. Its spacing is 2.88 km2 (the product of 10 rotor diameters by 5 diameters, with a 240-metre diameter). If a 1 GW offshore wind farm requires 66.67 turbines of 15 MW, it needs a marine area of 192 km2. A polygon of this size fits 30.5 times into a net precautionary area of 5,859 km2.

[10] In the case of Progreso and Seybaplaya, the manufacturing bases would be in the PODECOBIs.

[11] In parallel, field measurements of wind quality would be carried out using floating LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging), in order to rank the potential of the various polygons suitable for siting offshore wind farms.

[12] It is crucial that the Progreso ASIPONA (port authority) take this use into account in the port expansion currently under way.

[13] This calculation assumes an IEA 15 MW turbine. Its spacing is 2.88 km2 (the product of 10 rotor diameters by 5 diameters, with a 240-metre diameter). If a 1 GW offshore wind farm requires 66.67 turbines of 15 MW, it needs a marine area of 192 km2. A polygon of this size fits 31.5 times into a net precautionary area of 6,040 km2.

[14] This CFE control region includes the whole of the states of Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco and Tlaxcala, and most of the states of Guerrero, Puebla, Veracruz and Morelos.

[15] In European countries, this strip is usually defined with a width of 6 nautical miles (11.11 km). In Brazil, it has been defined with a width of 12 nautical miles.

[16] The current project is located within the PEMEX oil terminal; the planned container terminal is small, has no room to assemble unit trains, and rail connectivity outside the terminal is not functional: it runs through the port of Salina Cruz and crosses the city.